Rentals don’t follow prices up
Shanghai Real Estate has been on a real run alongside the stock index this year.
Though volume has slumped prices hold up pretty well and most recently have hit new highs in many commercial centers such as Xujiahui and Xintiandi.
Why the market moves up can be argued with a lot of reasons.
What has struck me about this “real estate rally” is that there is no correlation with the rental prices.
I’ve looked back in our database back to 2005 and have found that in many cases rents actual move opposite directions.
It could be that the two are not as interconnected as previously thought, and it could also mean that the market is healthier now than before, meaning that lower rents and no rents don’t force landlords to sell the property prematurely.
I compared our database and rents were a lot higher in 2005 then they were in 2004, they also went up in 2006 when the sales market stalled.
Yet in 2007 they were virtually the same.
In 2008 rents went down from 2007, mainly because of the panic resulting from the massive failures on wall street (like bear stearns).
Interestingly the stock market came down in a craze too but sales were stronger.
They’re still moving up until today yet rentals have come down from 2008 but are a little bit higher than in the beginning of 2009.
I link more of those to emotions, places don’t stay empty, they get rented out, fast, I would even say quicker than before.
But, Companies have more negotiation leverage, the economy is bad, and they pressuring landlords into lower prices now, and it works, mainly because landlords are letting others worry them.
Current “first hand” apartments on the market as of September 22nd 2008;
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